A newly resurfaced analysis sheds light on the controversial 2002 Millennium Challenge, one of the most expensive and elaborate military wargames in history. The exercise pitted the U.S. military (Blue) against a rogue state adversary (Red) in a simulated Persian Gulf conflict.
While initially remembered for Red Commander Paul Van Riper’s asymmetric tactics—such as using motorcycle couriers and silent signals to devastate the Blue fleet—the report clarifies the outcome. The game was not “cancelled” to hide an American defeat, but rather reset when the experiment went off the rails.
However, the real scandal was the rigged script. Midway through, controllers imposed constraints prohibiting Red from using chemical weapons or interfering with GPS, ensuring a scripted U.S. victory for the purpose of testing new technologies. This highlights a critical systemic issue: the military’s temptation to trade honest failure for expensive validation, creating a dangerous validation bias in procurement.
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